Dont Strangle Stroud

Where are we now?

On December 9th 2014 SDC will vote on the number of houses they believe are needed between now and 2031. The Office of National Statistics suggests that the population in our district will grow from 114,000 today to 126,500 by 2031, around 11%. In response to this population growth the council commissioned a consultancy report that has, remarkably, arrived at a figure for housing growth of 11,200 or around a 22% increase in housing stock for an 11% increase in population.
Needless to say the report contains a number of very basic errors that inflate the housing requirement by about 900 houses. As the ECN goes to print we are challenging these with the evidence to support the challenges. If the council decline to accept the arithmetic mistakes these will then be presented to the Inspector in January.

Politics

It appears to us that both the Labour and Conservative groups and the smaller parties, will unite to vote this higher number through. West of Stonehouse (WoS) will probably be included. Ken, David Drew and Tom Williams have worked tirelessly to prevent this happening. We believe our task has been made much harder because there are indications that the SDC political Labour Leadership is considering abandoning Eastington and Stonehouse. That they are likely to be joined by the Conservatives is indeed very unfortunate. Calculating the future housing requirement is quite difficult and requires a keen interest in demography and also skills in using the DCLG and ONS website spreadsheets. In addition you need to understand how these calculations are made. It is probable that very few councillors understand this and are therefore relying on the consultancy report and officers advice. As the consultant’s report will be guided by his commission it will say what his paymasters want it to say, and of course it does.

The Arithmetic

To justify West of Stonehouse the figure has to be in excess of 11,000. Around 10,500 would rule this out. If the errors were corrected then the figure would be around 10,500 hence correcting the errors are likely to be resisted. The “errors” are very basic and it is surprising that an “expert” in his field, the consultant, should make such basic mistakes. It is true however that to get beyond 10,500 any consultant would need to be very creative.

The Inspector

Obviously the Inspector at the reconvened EIP will consider carefully the evidence we submit but the pressure to build anything everywhere is very great. The Inspector requires an “objective assessment” of housing need. He will not accept “errors” where they are proven to be errors.

Does the Council decision enable SDC to resist planning applications?

The answer is almost certainly not. 11,200 houses require 450 houses to be built every year until 2031. The average over the last 20 years has been around 380. SDC have to have enough land allocated and developers must be able and willing to build 2,250 houses in the next 5-year period. If this cannot be done, and invariably the developers argue that it cannot, then an Inspector at appeal will consider that SDC does not have a 5-year land supply. Over the last few years one planning appeal after another has been lost, as SDC has conceded that it does not have a 5-year land supply. The higher the housing number agreed the more difficult it becomes to achieve the 5-year land supply. SDC have chosen a very high number because of this decision. Nowhere is now safe.
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West of Stonehouse
Of course many will believe that the WoS development will protect the rest of the District and the rest of the Parish. Sadly this will not be the case.

Strategic Site

If WoS is approved the ‘strategic site’ between Stonehouse and the motorway will just go on and be developed further. The private land available for such development is 500 acres plus 1,000 acres of council land. Yes, the first phase is 1,350. This plan will rise to at least 2,000 within the first year on sustainability grounds with the prospect of some of the allocation to other areas being transferred to WoS this was proposed by Council Officers in the Planning Advisory Panel (PAP) in March 2013. There is already keen pre-application interest in a retail park; a football stadium and distribution warehousing near the motorway junction. Such a development will lead to a plethora of planning applications for the parish.

Next Steps

We are very grateful for the incredibly generous donations that we have received which has made it possible to employ a Barrister. We still need your help for the next phase.
Stonehouse, Eastington, and the Stanleys have come together under the Acronym of SPA (Strategy Planning Association). They are together offering funds to continue to support a planning consultant and Barrister for the reconvened EIP. This team will represent all our communities. We have a strong case. The maths is wrong, but changing the numbers, will be resisted at SDC by those who have been pressing for the WoS development for many years. With the right legal support and a coherent case we can still prevail and avoid the fate of becoming a Kingsway or even a Bradley Stoke.

Daniel James | Don’t Strangle Stroud (DSS) |www.new-town.info